"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Not Mark Twain
I think the rationalist mantra of "If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics" will turn out to hurt our information landscape much more than it helps.
I respect what AI 2027 is doing (and there's way worst forecasts out there idk if you've seen Greg Colbourn's but it brings a tear to my eye with how horribly horribly Yudpilled it is) but this is good work
Even with low p(doom) i appreciate what they're doing to promote AI safety but like many Rats their work seems and is delivered as a lot more airtight than it is
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Not Mark Twain
I think the rationalist mantra of "If It’s Worth Doing, It’s Worth Doing With Made-Up Statistics" will turn out to hurt our information landscape much more than it helps.
I respect what AI 2027 is doing (and there's way worst forecasts out there idk if you've seen Greg Colbourn's but it brings a tear to my eye with how horribly horribly Yudpilled it is) but this is good work
Even with low p(doom) i appreciate what they're doing to promote AI safety but like many Rats their work seems and is delivered as a lot more airtight than it is
Hey! Thanks for this critique. Due to formatting issues our reply can be found here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PAYfmG2aRbdb74mEp/a-deep-critique-of-ai-2027-s-bad-timeline-models?commentId=pFp3WoJ7RoQPwELDr
“this is a task that would take an immortal CS graduate a thousand years to accomplish,”
The windows OS would take an immortal CS graduate millions of years to write but it’s not too hard to imagine an AI doing it within a year.