Confidence level: I’m a computational physicist working on nanoscale simulations, so I have some understanding of most of the things discussed here, but I am not specifically an expert on the topics covered, so I can’t promise perfect accuracy.
>For example, in 2003 the Nanoputian project successfully built a nanoscale model of a person out of organic molecules. They used cleverly chosen reaction pathways to produce the upper body, and cleverly chosen reaction pathways to produce the lower body, and then managed to pick the exact right conditions to mix them together in that would bond the two parts together
As a chemist by training, I don't think this is actually that impressive. They basically did a few Sonogashira couplings, which are rather easy reactions (I did them regularly as an undergrad).
Interesting! I think it's hard to judge the impressiveness of different achievements without expertise in the subject.
And I agree that engineered bacteria or viruses are a much more plausible and threatening path of attack, but engineering a pandemic that could cause human extinction, rather than mere widespread destruction, is an incredibly difficult challenge (this post https://ineffectivealtruismblog.com/2023/07/08/exaggerating-the-risks-part-9-biorisk-grounds-for-doubt/ explains some of the reasons why). For example, how would a malevolent entity test out their deadly virus in a wide range of conditions, without tipping people off?
It's still the scenario I'm most scared of (especially because even a failed attempt would be catastrophic), but I don't think it's a sure thing, would very much depend on the power level of the adversary.
Without getting too much into the (infohazardous) technical details, it's definitely possible to cause human extinction using engineered bacteria.
That blog post makes several assumptions in section #3 that are true for viruses but not bacteria. I wish I could say why they're wrong, but unfortunately you'll just have to take my word for it.
The Nanofactory collaboration didn't die out in 2017, they just went underground. They got acquired by the Canadian Bank Note corporation, which provided some internal funding alongside a $40M CAD grant from the Canadian government (SIF loan 813022). Their patent applications make for interesting reading: https://www.onscope.com/ipowner/en/owner/profile/1827206-cbn-nano-technologies-inc.html
There are other people working on direct-to-diamondoid mechanosynthesis as well, so the field is hardly dead.
>For example, in 2003 the Nanoputian project successfully built a nanoscale model of a person out of organic molecules. They used cleverly chosen reaction pathways to produce the upper body, and cleverly chosen reaction pathways to produce the lower body, and then managed to pick the exact right conditions to mix them together in that would bond the two parts together
As a chemist by training, I don't think this is actually that impressive. They basically did a few Sonogashira couplings, which are rather easy reactions (I did them regularly as an undergrad).
If you want something impressive, look at the synthesis of vitamin B12: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitamin_B12_total_synthesis
Also . . . you don't need "diamondoid" technology to make nano-replicators that kill everything. Highly engineered bacteria could do the trick.
Interesting! I think it's hard to judge the impressiveness of different achievements without expertise in the subject.
And I agree that engineered bacteria or viruses are a much more plausible and threatening path of attack, but engineering a pandemic that could cause human extinction, rather than mere widespread destruction, is an incredibly difficult challenge (this post https://ineffectivealtruismblog.com/2023/07/08/exaggerating-the-risks-part-9-biorisk-grounds-for-doubt/ explains some of the reasons why). For example, how would a malevolent entity test out their deadly virus in a wide range of conditions, without tipping people off?
It's still the scenario I'm most scared of (especially because even a failed attempt would be catastrophic), but I don't think it's a sure thing, would very much depend on the power level of the adversary.
Without getting too much into the (infohazardous) technical details, it's definitely possible to cause human extinction using engineered bacteria.
That blog post makes several assumptions in section #3 that are true for viruses but not bacteria. I wish I could say why they're wrong, but unfortunately you'll just have to take my word for it.
The Nanofactory collaboration didn't die out in 2017, they just went underground. They got acquired by the Canadian Bank Note corporation, which provided some internal funding alongside a $40M CAD grant from the Canadian government (SIF loan 813022). Their patent applications make for interesting reading: https://www.onscope.com/ipowner/en/owner/profile/1827206-cbn-nano-technologies-inc.html
There are other people working on direct-to-diamondoid mechanosynthesis as well, so the field is hardly dead.